Ahmed Tayeb, Analyst in Economic and Social Affairs, holds a Master's degree in Economics from the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM).
In recent weeks, the world has witnessed escalating tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, with diplomatic negotiations coinciding with US military preparations. This included the deployment of large numbers of troops and weapons to the Middle East.
Following weeks of tension, and in the early hours of February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States jointly launched an aerial attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran. This marks the second joint attack carried out by the two countries against Iran within a single year. The attack resulted in the death of the Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei, along with several senior military commanders. The airstrikes also targeted infrastructure, including military sites and facilities for the manufacturing and storage of long-range missiles.
This attack, which claimed the life of Iran's Supreme Leader, does not merely represent a conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East; rather, it is part of a larger conflict between the United States and China.
This conflict directly impacts China's strategic interests, threatening its energy security and the infrastructure projects that connect Chinese industries across various continents, supporting its ambition to compete for global leadership. Therefore, the war on Iran conceals several US strategies aimed at containing China's power:
1. The Energy Suffocation Strategy
The primary US objective in the war on Iran is to disrupt the oil supply lines that feed Chinese industries. China is the largest importer of Iranian oil, purchasing more than 90% of Iran's oil exports. According to data from shipping and energy tracking companies, China was importing approximately 1.38 million barrels per day from Iran in 2025, which accounts for about 13% of its total seaborne oil imports.
At the beginning of this year, the United States executed a successful operation in Venezuela, resulting in the abduction of its president. Venezuela, a close ally of China, holds the world's largest oil reserves. Meanwhile, Iran ranks third globally in terms of oil reserves.
If the United States succeeds in changing the regime in Iran, it would gain control over the world's largest and third-largest oil reserves. With Washington’s close ally, Saudi Arabia, holding the second-largest reserves, this would mean US control over more than 50% of global oil reserves, as well as the supply lines feeding China's economy and its industries.
Another potential negative consequence for China is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy. Approximately 20% of global oil and gas passes through it, and 40% of this volume goes to China, posing a direct threat to its energy security.
2. The Strategy to Undermine the "Belt and Road" Project
Iran is not just a source of cheap oil for China; it also serves as a land bridge connecting Asia to the Middle East and Europe. It is an essential component of the "Belt and Road" initiative, which aims to revive the ancient Silk Road.
Launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, this massive project aims to develop land and maritime transportation networks to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa. One of its main motivations is to reduce China's reliance on waterways controlled by the United States, such as the Strait of Malacca.
Iran holds a vital strategic location in this project, situated at a critical crossroads linking Central Asia to the Middle East and the Indian Ocean. In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year, $400 billion strategic partnership agreement, which includes developing railways and ports to transform Iran into a major trade hub. Therefore, the war on Iran represents a US attempt to derail this project and prevent China from expanding its global influence.
What if the War Becomes Prolonged?
Since the Obama administration, the United States has adopted the "Pivot to Asia" strategy to enhance its economic and military presence on the continent, with the goal of containing China. This policy continued under the Trump and Biden administrations.
However, if the war on Iran drags on, it could turn into an economic burden for the United States—much like its War on Terror. This would grant China an opportunity to strengthen its influence, potentially move toward Taiwan, and reinforce its presence in Asia and the South China Sea.
Conclusion
The attack on Iran is not merely a regional conflict between Israel and Iran backed by American support; it is part of a global struggle between the United States and China over world leadership.
Washington and Tel Aviv targeted the energy lifelines that feed the Chinese economy, but the outcome of this conflict remains undecided. If the war ends quickly, the United States may succeed in dampening China's ambitions. However, if it becomes prolonged, it could drain Washington and present Beijing with an opportunity to reshape the global order. In this war, the missiles are falling on Iran, but their true impact is being decided in China's decision-making rooms.